The March 2026 NZ Forestry Outlook
Resilience and Headwinds
The New Zealand forestry sector is currently navigating a complex landscape of domestic growth and significant international pressure. While local demand shows promising signs of a building growth, global geopolitical conflicts are driving up costs for everyone from the forest floor to the export docks.
Here are the highlights you need to know from the latest industry report.
Domestic Growth: Building a Stronger Foundation
Despite a cooling broader economy, the forestry sector is punching above its weight.
- December 2025 estimates of forestry and logging GDP increased 2.20% over the previous quarter, significantly outperforming the broader agriculture category.
- New dwelling consents in January 2026 were 19.34% higher than the same month last year, continuing a steady rise in domestic construction activity.
- National domestic weighted average log prices for structural logs have remained relatively steady, ending February 2026 at NZD 127.60 per tonne.
Global Pressures: The ‘Middle East’ Effect
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is sending shockwaves through the global supply chain.
- The national average diesel price in New Zealand jumped by almost 50% between February and March 2026, heavily impacting harvesting and transport operations.
- Shipping costs for log exports to China increased by approximately 30.58% in March 2026 due to rising fuel prices and insurance premiums.
- On a brighter note, Eastland Port completed its Twin Berth project in March 2026, allowing two large log vessels to load simultaneously and improving efficiency for regional exporters.
Export Market Snapshot
China remains New Zealand's dominant trade partner, though the pricing environment has become increasingly competitive.
- Log export revenue increased by 4.74% to NZD 3.30 billion for the year ended January 2026.
- While China continues to be the largest market for logs and pulp, monthly log export revenue to the region in January 2026 saw a sharp 29.59% dip compared to the previous year.
- Sawn timber and sleepers saw the largest annual increase in export revenue at 9.93%, with the United States remaining the primary destination for these products.
Modernising the Future
The way New Zealand tracks its exotic forests is entering a new digital era.
- The National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) is transitioning from survey-based reporting to satellite-based monitoring to improve precision and reduce the reporting burden on forest owners.
- The Forest Growers Levy Trust Board has approved 22 new research projects for 2026, with 60% of those initiatives aimed at supporting industry resilience and adaptation.
Want the full story? The March 2026 report contains detailed data on carbon markets, regional updates, and international trade analysis. Click here to download the full Forestry Industry Insights PDF
For more information or specific queries regarding these insights, you can reach out to Te Uru Rākau – New Zealand Forest Service at teururakau@mpi.govt.nz